Current community forecast
No 65.6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 25, 5:24 AM UTCJan 15, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's AI1 orbital data center be operational?
Manifold MarketsWill any of CPUs/GPU created by hackerfab generate at least 10^18 operations of compute by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsNorth Carolina enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketLouisiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketRules
Inspired by:
- [tweet]Does not include compute solely in support of normal satellite activities like communication or imaging.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "compute":
- Current satellite edge computing (e.g., Starlink's onboard processing for communications) does not count toward the 1GW threshold
- Only orbital data centers count - facilities where:
- The customer is indifferent about the data center's location (aside from price)
