When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffSpace10y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2031-2032 35.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
2031-2032 35.2%Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 11, 26, 8:13 AM UTCDec 31, 36, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
