When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffSpace10y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecast
2031-2032 35.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 26, 8:13 AM UTCDec 31, 36, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational??
- Manifold Markets prices 2031-2032 at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? resolve?
- When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2036.
- How is When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
