Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2031–2032 25.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsNorth Carolina enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketLouisiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketOhio enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketIndiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketWill any state enact a data center moratorium law?
KalshiRules
The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?
- This is deliberately set well above "a computer in orbit." A single GPU (Starcloud-1, Nov 2025) or a couple of "nodes" (Axiom, Jan 2026) are about 1 kW class and do not count. 1 MW (roughly 1,000 datacenter-class GPUs) is the threshold where orbital compute becomes real infrastructure rather than a demonstrator.
- Resolves to the year in which the first qualifying facility is first confirmed operational, per a credible company announcement corroborated by at least one major outlet (Reuters, CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, etc.).
- What counts:
- A single spacecraft, or a tightly co-located cluster operating as one data center, delivering >=1 MW of IT/compute power (power drawn by the compute hardware, not total bus/array capacity).
- "Operational" = powered on and running real compute workloads in orbit — not merely launched, not a ground test, not a planned/announced capacity.