Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2031–2032 25.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?
- This is deliberately set well above "a computer in orbit." A single GPU (Starcloud-1, Nov 2025) or a couple of "nodes" (Axiom, Jan 2026) are about 1 kW class and do not count. 1 MW (roughly 1,000 datacenter-class GPUs) is the threshold where orbital compute becomes real infrastructure rather than a demonstrator.
- Resolves to the year in which the first qualifying facility is first confirmed operational, per a credible company announcement corroborated by at least one major outlet (Reuters, CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, etc.).
- What counts:
- A single spacecraft, or a tightly co-located cluster operating as one data center, delivering >=1 MW of IT/compute power (power drawn by the compute hardware, not total bus/array capacity).
- "Operational" = powered on and running real compute workloads in orbit — not merely launched, not a ground test, not a planned/announced capacity.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space??
- Manifold Markets prices 2031–2032 at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? resolve?
- When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.
- How is When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?
