Will any of CPUs/GPU created by hackerfab generate at least 10^18 operations of compute by EOY2028?
AIOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.7%
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Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
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Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 25, 2:55 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
The total number of computing operations performed by a CPU over its lifetime depends on several factors, such as its clock speed, the number of cycles per second, and the number of years the CPU is in use.
- Let’s break down how to estimate this number for a 2005 CPU.
- Assumptions:
- Clock speed: The typical clock speed for high-end CPUs in 2005 was around 2–3 GHz (2–3 billion cycles per second).
- Let’s assume a clock speed of 2.5 GHz.
- Operations per cycle: Modern CPUs can perform multiple operations per clock cycle, depending on the architecture and workload.
