Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
By end of 2037 84.1%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 26, 9:06 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
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KalshiWill at least 1% of datacenter capacity be in space by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 100 GW of solar power on the Moon before there is 100 GW of solar power in orbit?
Manifold MarketsTexas enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria:
- Resolves YES for an option if, by that date, space-based data centers meet ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Aggregate capacity: ≥10GW total power draw capacity across all qualifying space-based data center infrastructure, cumulative across all operators and facilities
- AI compute: Each contributing facility must be used for machine learning workloads (training or inference)
- Power accounting: Counts power draw by compute equipment (GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, cooling).