Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.5%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 26, 7:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is a credible, documented incident in 2026 where an AI system loses control and directly causes over $100 million in damages. "Loss of control" means the AI system operates in ways not intended by its developers, evades human oversight, or behaves autonomously in harmful ways.
- Damages must be quantifiable and directly attributable to the AI system's uncontrolled behaviour—including financial losses, property damage, infrastructure damage, or economic harm from market disruptions.
- Resolution sources include: official incident databases (AI Incident Database, MIT AI Incident Tracker), regulatory filings, court documents, financial disclosures, and credible news reporting from major outlets.
- The incident must be publicly documented by December 31, 2026.
