KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 80%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 40.0%
Spread
19.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 4, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
If OpenAI pays tort damages of more than $1 million before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? resolve?
- Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI pays tort damages of more than $1 million before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.