What are the current odds for What'll Be My P(Loss of Control before 2100) In Jan 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of October 28, 2026.

What'll Be My P(Loss of Control before 2100) In Jan 2030?

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 90%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Nov 6, 24, 5:54 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

I'll resolve this question to my P(Loss of Control before 2100) at the start of 2030.

Reusable definitions:
"Loss of Control" captures all scenarios where the long-term future does not contain large amounts of value because of humanity.
"Before 2100" adds a time cutoff in case no singularity or extinction events happen until end of century.
Examples and counterexamples:
Asteroid wipes out Earth = Loss of control