Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 24, 26, 5:12 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major outbreak of avian flu is confirmed by the end of 2027.
- A "major outbreak" is defined as one of the following occurring before January 1, 2028:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission: Confirmed human-to-human transmission of H5N1 with at least 10 confirmed cases resulting from person-to-person spread (not occupational exposure to animals).
- Significant poultry mortality event: A single outbreak affecting 10+ million birds across one or more countries, requiring mass culling operations.
- Pandemic declaration: Official declaration of a pandemic by the WHO related to avian influenza.
