Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 17, 26, 3:44 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
As Alex Finn suggested in his livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIgDfVSDmMU
- Major movie means produced by a large movie studio, not a small production.
- I won't bet.
- Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Large movie studio" will be determined by whether the creator would have a reasonable chance of hearing about the movie outside of their AI internet circle, or if they know a non-AI person who heard about it/watched it.
