Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingAug 20, 26, 5:10 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Karoline Leavitt announced on 2026-08-12 that she will step down as White House Press Secretary at the end of August 2026.
- As of market creation no successor has been named, and NBC News has reported the White House may not name a permanent replacement until after the November midterm elections.
- RESOLUTION: Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-09-30 at 11:59 PM ET, a person other than Karoline Leavitt is publicly identified by the White House as holding the title of White House Press Secretary, Acting White House Press Secretary, or Interim White House Press Secretary.
- Acceptable evidence (any one suffices): - An official White House statement, whitehouse.gov listing, or on-record announcement by the President or a White House official naming that person to the role. - The person conducting an official White House press briefing while being identified by the White House under one of those three titles.
- Does NOT count: a deputy or principal deputy press secretary briefing the press WITHOUT being given one of the three titles above; press speculation, anonymously-sourced reporting, or "frontrunner" stories; a nominee/pick who has not yet been installed or designated acting.
- Resolves NO otherwise, including if the role is simply left formally vacant through 2026-09-30.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026? resolve?
- Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Karoline Leavitt announced on 2026-08-12 that she will step down as White House Press Secretary at the end of August 2026.