Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
AIOne-OffRegulationUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 78.3%
Yes 78.3%Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 23, 12:32 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to control the export of frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- The policy may also restrict API access.
- This policy aims to limit the proliferation of AI models that pose significant risks, such as powerful AI technology falling into the wrong hands.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
