Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 13, 26, 3:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress before the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?
Manifold MarketsOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsRules
Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability.
- The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.
- Exception: Ceasing to support any services in some country (e.g. OpenAI removing a country from https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/supported-countries) does NOT count.
