Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingJun 13, 26, 3:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability.
- The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.
- Exception: Ceasing to support any services in some country (e.g. OpenAI removing a country from https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/supported-countries) does NOT count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? resolve?
- Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability.