Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.3%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 23, 2:02 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?
KalshiWill the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Things that would resolve this as YES include
- New legislation that specifically excludes software from patentability, similar to article 52 of the European Patent Convention
- Major SCOTUS decision that effectively results in the same
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $149K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt39%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+13.0pt37%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-8.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.9%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.8%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-3.1pt16.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.4K
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? resolve?
- Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2032.
- How is Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Things that would resolve this as YES include