Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?
AIOne-OffTechUS Politics14y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.6%
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21
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 21 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 23, 1:57 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 2:59 AM UTC
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VISTA X-62A, a one-of-a-kind training aircraft, was flown by an artificial intelligence agent for more than 17 hours recently, representing the first time AI engaged on a tactical aircraft.
- For the purposes of this market, "fleet" refers to the operational aircraft used by the United States Air Force for their day-to-day missions and activities, not including aircraft that are still in development or testing phases.
- The decision to integrate such aircraft into the Air Force's active service fleet must be publicly announced and confirmed by an official representative of the United States government or the United States Air Force.
- If by the year 2040, the United States Air Force has not officially announced and confirmed the integration of fully autonomous AI-controlled fighter jets into their active service fleet, the resolution will be "No".
- If such an announcement is made by the deadline, the resolution will be "Yes".
