Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?
One-OffAI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.8%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 23, 6:09 PM UTCApr 7, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
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A "wake-up call" is an incident which makes the surviving humans on Earth realise that AI alignment is actually something that humanity should care about.
- If no humans survive, it is not a wake-up call, it is the existential AI risk that we have been warning about.
- So in other words, will an AI or group of AIs kill some number of people less than the total number of people on earth, or create some other kind of disaster, that makes people say "Holy shit! The AI risk people were right all along!"
