Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
AIOne-Off13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAutonomous AI math researcher 93.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 25, 7:41 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
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Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To satisfy Event 2, the AI must be capable of autonomously writing readable, well-explained papers.
