Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?
EconomyOne-Off1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 1, 23, 6:58 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Wyoming's unemployment rate remain below 3.5% in 2026?
KalshiAustralia unemployment rate in October
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRules
The UNRATE data series measures the United States unemployment rate.
- This figure is defined as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed, with the labor force consisting of individuals who are 16 years of age or older, residing in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, and are not living in institutions (e.g., correctional or mental facilities, homes for the elderly), nor are on active duty in the Armed Forces.
- This rate corresponds to the U-3 measure of labor underutilization, indicating the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer.
- This data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of their 'Employment Situation' release, which draws from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'.
- The data is seasonally adjusted and updated on a monthly basis.
- Question Specifications: