Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 26, 8:03 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Strait of Hormuz be blockaded during the year that peak oil is reached?
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Strait of Hormuz fully close again in 2026? [HOT]?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Strait of Hormuz fully close again in 2026? [HOT] resolve?
- Will the Strait of Hormuz fully close again in 2026? [HOT] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.