Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 14, 26, 5:32 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Shiller P/E Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE) for the S&P 500 exceeds 50.0 at any point during the market's duration, based on the official data published by Robert Shiller.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the ratio remains at or below 50.0 through January 1, 2030.
- The primary source for resolution is the data provided at Robert Shiller’s Online Data website.
- Specifically, the market will refer to the "U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio" spreadsheet.
- If this data source becomes unavailable, the resolution will be based on the most widely accepted alternative index tracking the S&P 500 CAPE ratio, as reported by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal).