Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
InflationCustomEquitiesBusiness & Corporate3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.2%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 14, 26, 1:01 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, commonly known as the Shiller P/E ratio, reaches a value higher than its previous all-time high at any point before January 1, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- The primary source for verification will be the data provided by the following website: https://shillerdata.com/.
- The Shiller P/E, or CAPE ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the S&P 500 index.
- It is defined as the price of the index divided by the average of ten years of earnings, adjusted for inflation.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030? resolve?
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria