Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
40-50 79.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 24, 4:06 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiWill Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
drawdown measured from the highest value post-2023 https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-1.0pt79%
- Apple-0.6pt13%
- Alphabet7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $105.9K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9916.2%
- 8,000 to 8,199.99+1.0pt15.2%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9910.5%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,070 or above90%
- 29,080 or above90%
- 29,090 or above90%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36.4K
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 9?
- Down79%
- Up21%
- Total Vol
- $32.1K
- 24h Vol
- $31.9K
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt17.5%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-1.0pt6.8%
- 31,000 to 31,499.99+1.0pt6.8%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T+8.0pt26.2%
- $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt21.4%
- $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt18.4%
+7 more outcomes
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 9?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown??
- Manifold Markets prices 40-50 at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown? resolve?
- How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: drawdown measured from the highest value post-2023 https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe