Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 25, 6:05 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of September 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES if at any point between now and January 1, 2040, the closing price of the S&P 500 falls more than 50% from its all-time high closing price at the time this market was created or from a new all-time high reached after this market was created.
- Only closing prices will be considered.
- For example:
- The S&P 500 current closing ATH is 6,144.15.
- If it falls below 3072.28 (50% drop) at any point before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.
- If the S&P 500 reaches a new ATH (e.g., 10,000) and then falls below 5,000 (50% drop from that new ATH) before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-1.0pt79%
- Apple-0.6pt13%
- Alphabet7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $105.9K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9916.2%
- 8,000 to 8,199.99+1.0pt15.2%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9910.5%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,070 or above90%
- 29,080 or above90%
- 29,090 or above90%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36.4K
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 9?
- Down79%
- Up21%
- Total Vol
- $32.1K
- 24h Vol
- $31.9K
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt17.5%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-1.0pt6.8%
- 31,000 to 31,499.99+1.0pt6.8%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T+8.0pt26.2%
- $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt21.4%
- $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt18.4%
+7 more outcomes
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 9?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- S&P price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the S&P 500 fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the S&P 500 fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040? resolve?
- Will the S&P 500 fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will the S&P 500 fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if at any point between now and January 1, 2040, the closing price of the S&P 500 falls more than 50% from its all-time high closing price at the time this market was created or from a new all-time high reached after this market was created.