Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 72.7%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 26, 6:24 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before blue-collar jobs are automated?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by which date?
PolymarketFurther substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
- Specifically, "solved" is defined by either of the following occurring on or before December 31, 2029 (11:59 PM UTC):
- The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) formally awards the Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or officially announces on its website (claymath.org) that the problem has been solved.
- A paper proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis is published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, and a broad consensus of the global mathematics community (as reported by major scientific bodies or reputable scientific outlets like the International Mathematical Union, Nature, or Science) accepts the proof as correct.
