Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 6:36 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 7:28 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolves YES if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 4% or higher.
- Resolves NO if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 2% or lower.
- The yearly inflation rate refers to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate as announced on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
- https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
- This market will resolve as soon either the 2% or 4% threshold is crossed per an official announcement.
- I will not wait for corrections which could possibly invalidate the resolution and will not change the resolution should that happen.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%? resolve?
- Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2999.
- How is Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 4% or higher.
