KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.10% 95%+39.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$44
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquiditySpread
20.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 6:30 PMSep 11, 26, 11:55 AM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.00% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.10% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.20% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.30% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.40% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.50% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $75.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.3K
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- US electricity price in August
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- CPI in August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil inflation rate in August?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.10% at 95% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Brazil inflation rate in August resolve?
- Brazil inflation rate in August is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is Brazil inflation rate in August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.00% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.