What are the current odds for Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 7, 2026.

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

InflationOne-OffFed Central Banks Bonds & Treasuries Macro & Economy

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (98.6%)

Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, 5:00 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 98.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 days ago

Stale

Jan 12, 26, 3:44 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes7%

No93%

98.6%

Yes

1.4%

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$77,034.73+6.00%

EthereumETH$2,413.56+3.82%

SolanaSOL$90.91+4.20%

Rules

Resolves YES if the SOFR is below 2.5% by the end of July 2026.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

InflationOne-OffFed Central Banks Bonds & Treasuries Macro & Economy

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (98.6%)

Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, 5:00 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 98.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 days ago

Stale

Jan 12, 26, 3:44 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes7%

No93%

98.6%

Yes

1.4%

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$77,034.73+6.00%

EthereumETH$2,413.56+3.82%

SolanaSOL$90.91+4.20%

Rules

Resolves YES if the SOFR is below 2.5% by the end of July 2026.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 7, 2026.
When does Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026? resolve?: Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026.
How is Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the SOFR is below 2.5% by the end of July 2026.

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Frequently asked questions

Open markets

Fed Decision in September?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Fed rate hike by which date?

CPI-U index in August

CPI core in October

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Related Cryptos

Frequently asked questions

Open markets

Fed Decision in September?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Fed rate hike by which date?

CPI-U index in August

CPI core in October