Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 23, 2:46 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 15 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2050? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.
- If the clock shows a higher time because of some error it doesn't count.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.7pt98%
- September 25-8.0pt84%
- September 30-5.0pt76%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.2K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $339.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+3.0pt13%
- September 30+1.4pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt60%
- October 31+4.0pt36%
- September 30+3.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+8.0pt75%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
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- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? resolve?
- Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 15 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2050? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.