Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 10:56 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if the French national railway operator SNCF (or any legal structure that is clearly a successor of current day SNCF) operates 15 or more permanent night train lines, concurrently, at any time before Jan 1st 2027.
- I reserve the right to N/A on ambiguity after discussion in the comment.
- A line qualifies if it has a different terminus than all other operating lines, and if it operates year-long on a regular schedule (does not need to be daily, but does need more than weekly, and not only in the summer/winter).
- Night train lines qualify if they are labeled as such, and contain sleeping accommodation (not just a very late train)
- There is currently 6 SNCF operated night train lines (all of them of course qualify under the aforementioned criteria) with plan for another one opening in 2023.
- This is up from 2 in the 2010's but down from double digit numbers in the 60-70's
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027? resolve?
- Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the French national railway operator SNCF (or any legal structure that is clearly a successor of current day SNCF) operates 15 or more permanent night train lines, concurrently, at any time before Jan 1st 2027.
