Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 11, 23, 10:56 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 east expansion (to Trim Station) open for public ridership?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 west expansion (to Lincoln Fields Station) open for public ridership?
Manifold MarketsWill a train line be in operation by Jan 1st 2040 that uses room-temperature superconductivity to levitate the train?
Manifold MarketsWill a train line be in operation by Jan 1st 2032 that uses room-temperature superconductivity to levitate the train?
Manifold MarketsWill Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?
KalshiWill an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the French national railway operator SNCF (or any legal structure that is clearly a successor of current day SNCF) operates 15 or more permanent night train lines, concurrently, at any time before Jan 1st 2027.
- I reserve the right to N/A on ambiguity after discussion in the comment.
- A line qualifies if it has a different terminus than all other operating lines, and if it operates year-long on a regular schedule (does not need to be daily, but does need more than weekly, and not only in the summer/winter).
- Night train lines qualify if they are labeled as such, and contain sleeping accommodation (not just a very late train)
- There is currently 6 SNCF operated night train lines (all of them of course qualify under the aforementioned criteria) with plan for another one opening in 2023.
- This is up from 2 in the 2010's but down from double digit numbers in the 60-70's
