Current community forecast
No 89.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Mar 9, 26, 2:45 AM UTCMar 14, 28, 2:43 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The market @/MaxHarms/did-alibabas-rome-ai-try-to-break-f asks whether an incident described in a paper from Alibaba, in which an AI attempted to mine crypto and subvert human oversight without being prompted to, really occurred as stated.
- See this excerpt from the resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if by the market close there has been no significant evidence that it wasn't the AI.
- It can also resolve YES if there has been a significant validation by a trusted third-party.
- YES resolution: This market resolves YES if the incident is significantly validated by anybody.
- Unlike the other market, it counts if the incident is significantly validated by Alibaba researchers themselves. "Significant validation" means that someone takes another look at the data from the incident, they publicly release new findings that weren't included in the original paper, and these findings generally support that the incident occurred as stated.
