Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 23, 6:36 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
Manifold MarketsDo scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Manifold MarketsWill "Physics of RL: Toy scaling laws for the emerg..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
- [image]I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
