On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94.5% as of October 19, 2026.

When does On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark resolve?

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tracking external bet: https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202924%
• 2028-2.0pt17%
• 202710%

Total Vol

$2.1M

24h Vol

$231.3K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+3.0pt78%
• December 15,+9.0pt76%
• November 30,+8.0pt65%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+5.3pt52%
• Gemini-0.1pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-2.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.9pt74.5%
• Anthropic-2.5pt24.5%
• OpenAI+0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.7%97%
• Above 23.8%96%
• Above 24.6%92.5%

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+9.0pt93%
• ↑$1.75T+1.5pt69%
• ↑$2.0T-2.0pt56%

+10 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• OpenAI market share this week
• Best AI this week
• Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
• AI bubble burst by which date?
• When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?