Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
One-OffAI4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.1%
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Updated 9 minutes ago
Apr 18, 23, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:29 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Problem 5.31 from @NeelNanda's 200 COP.
- "D* 5.31 - Hypothesis: The reason scaling laws happen is that models experience a ton of tiny phase changes, which average out to a smooth curve because of the law of large numbers.
- Can you find evidence for or against that? Are phase changes everywhere?"
- Resolves to the best evidence available by the end of 2030.