Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-OffCommodities2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.6%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Rio Tinto. 2024 actual 3.3 Mt (+1% YoY); Kitimat ramp + NZAS full ownership.
- The 3.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued post-ramp run-rate; meaningful deviation requires either smelter restarts (Tomago, Bell Bay) or further M&A. Resolution sources (priority order):
- Rio Tinto quarterly production results and annual report https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/financial-news-performance/quarterly-production-results
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes? resolve?
- Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2029.
- How is Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes.