Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.8pt4%
• October 31+0.2pt1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.2M

24h Vol

$414.8K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt22.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt13.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.5%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes-1.0pt2.5%

Total Vol

$525.6K

24h Vol

$9.9K

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes-0.5pt77.1%
• No22.9%

Total Vol

$437.8K

24h Vol

$3.2K

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.5pt88.9%
• 2-2.0pt11.1%
• 30%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30+9.0pt54%
• December 3112%

Total Vol

$16.8K

24h Vol

$2.3K

• How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
• How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
• How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?
• Is Earth flat?
• Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
• What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
• 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
• Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?