Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.5%
Forecasters
148
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 22, 12:30 AM UTCFeb 22, 22, 9:22 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
- Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? resolve?
- Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on February 22, 2222.
- How is Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first