Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97.2%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 7:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially releases a product, service, or feature that is classified as a fully autonomous AI agent before July 1, 2027.
- For the purposes of this market, an autonomous AI agent is defined as an AI system capable of executing multi-step tasks, navigating web browsers, or interacting with software interfaces to achieve user-defined goals with a high degree of independence (i.e., without requiring continuous human-in-the-loop prompts for every step).
- Note on existing products: OpenAI has already released several products with autonomous agentic capabilities, including:
- Operator (released January 2025)
- ChatGPT Agent (released July 2025)
