Current community forecast
No 70.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 2, 26, 1:01 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an incident meeting all six of the following conditions occurs between October 2, 2026, and June 30, 2027, at 23:59 UTC, and is publicly confirmed by September 30, 2027.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
- Resolution may be deferred until September 30, 2027, to allow for public confirmation.
- Attacker: The cyber-attacker must be an AI model developed by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind (GDM), running on that lab's infrastructure or under its direct control (including internal use, training, research, or evaluation sandboxes).
- Models deployed for third-party customer use via APIs or consumer-facing products do not qualify.