Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.8%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 5:27 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Total Vol
- $109K
- 24h Vol
- $69.2K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.1pt62%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt21%
- Gemini+1.3pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.6K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nintendo sue an AI company for copyright reasons by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Nintendo sue an AI company for copyright reasons by 2030? resolve?
- Will Nintendo sue an AI company for copyright reasons by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.