Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 4:46 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.
- Resolves YES if that bill is substantively included in another bill or package that passes this year as well, or if it’s resubmitted under a different number.
- Generally, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question, not the explicit letter of these criteria.
- S-7263 is a bill seeking to regulate AIs giving medical/legal/professional advice, allowing people to sue chatbot owners who violate this ban.
- If S-7263 is substantially amended to the point that it is in my estimation no longer substantively similar to its current form (let’s say, 80% less potent or different from its current form) then this will resolve NO.
- In gray areas, I may resolve to PROB, judging from a consensus of credible reporting and feedback from other Manifold moderators.