Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 25, 9:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
Manifold MarketsWhat will OpenAI's public ticker be?
PolymarketWhich banks will take OpenAI public?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.