KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Raymond James 50%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 3, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which banks will take Anthropic public?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's public ticker be?
PolymarketWill MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
Manifold MarketsWill NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Evercore serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements.
- Joint book-running managers qualify.
- Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify.
- If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies.
- For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $149K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt39%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+13.0pt37%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-8.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.9%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.8%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-3.1pt16.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.4K
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which banks will take OpenAI public??
- Kalshi prices Raymond James at 50% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which banks will take OpenAI public? resolve?
- Which banks will take OpenAI public? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Which banks will take OpenAI public? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Evercore serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.