Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
ExchangeOne-OffAICorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 1:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if: OpenAI common stock begins trading on a public exchange on or before December 31, 2026, AND its market capitalization at the close of its first full trading day is ≥ $1.00 trillion USD.
- • Resolves NO if trading has not begun by Dec 31, 2026 (delay, withdrawal, or acquisition all count as NO).
- This is deliberate — the market prices both timing risk and valuation.
- • Market cap = first-day closing price × total shares outstanding as reported by at least two of: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or the exchange itself.
- If outlets split on basic vs. diluted share count, use basic shares outstanding per the final prospectus.
- • Direct listing counts the same as a traditional IPO.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Fcerablo
- ABLO+10.0pt72.5%
- FCER-14.0pt27.6%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Wtamatch WUSO 26 Nosaeryb
- ERYB+27.0pt81.2%
- NOSA-26.0pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- $78,100 or above99%
- $75,300 or above99%
- $78,000 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $245.4K
- 24h Vol
- $211.7K
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ageabvan
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Kkhaltie
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Ijovcgau
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Azveldar
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+? resolve?
- Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if: OpenAI common stock begins trading on a public exchange on or before December 31, 2026, AND its market capitalization at the close of its first full trading day is ≥ $1.00 trillion USD.