Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
ExchangeOne-OffAICorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 1:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if: OpenAI common stock begins trading on a public exchange on or before December 31, 2026, AND its market capitalization at the close of its first full trading day is ≥ $1.00 trillion USD.
- • Resolves NO if trading has not begun by Dec 31, 2026 (delay, withdrawal, or acquisition all count as NO).
- This is deliberate — the market prices both timing risk and valuation.
- • Market cap = first-day closing price × total shares outstanding as reported by at least two of: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or the exchange itself.
- If outlets split on basic vs. diluted share count, use basic shares outstanding per the final prospectus.
- • Direct listing counts the same as a traditional IPO.