Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingAug 6, 26, 12:41 AM UTCAug 6, 27, 12:39 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Open markets
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? resolve?
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? is scheduled to resolve on August 6, 2027.
- How is Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X