Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B?
RegulationAIOne-OffTech5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.8%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 29, 26, 8:54 AM UTCFeb 28, 27, 10:00 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
On April 28, 2026, Meta announced 2026 capex guidance of $115-135 billion, nearly double 2025's spending.
- The actual full-year reported figure will land somewhere in or around this range.
- This market asks whether the reported full-year capex (per Meta's Q4 2026 earnings or 10-K) will be at least $130 billion — i.e., toward the high end of guidance.
- RESOLVES YES if Meta's officially reported full-year 2026 capital expenditures (from the FY2026 10-K filing, expected late January or early February 2027) are ≥ $130.0 billion.
- RESOLVES NO if reported full-year 2026 capex is < $130 billion.
- Source: Meta's 10-K filed with the SEC.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B? resolve?
- Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2027.
- How is Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On April 28, 2026, Meta announced 2026 capex guidance of $115-135 billion, nearly double 2025's spending.