Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B?
RegulationAIOne-OffTech4mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleApr 29, 26, 8:54 AM UTCFeb 28, 27, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by ?
FutuurRules
On April 28, 2026, Meta announced 2026 capex guidance of $115-135 billion, nearly double 2025's spending.
- The actual full-year reported figure will land somewhere in or around this range.
- This market asks whether the reported full-year capex (per Meta's Q4 2026 earnings or 10-K) will be at least $130 billion — i.e., toward the high end of guidance.
- RESOLVES YES if Meta's officially reported full-year 2026 capital expenditures (from the FY2026 10-K filing, expected late January or early February 2027) are ≥ $130.0 billion.
- RESOLVES NO if reported full-year 2026 capex is < $130 billion.
- Source: Meta's 10-K filed with the SEC.
