Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?
RegulationAIOne-OffTech5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.1%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 8:22 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the sum of full-year 2026 capital expenditures from the following five companies exceeds $300 billion USD:
- Amazon (AWS segment, or company-total capex per 10-K if AWS-segment capex not separately disclosed)
- Microsoft (capex per 10-K)
- Alphabet/Google (capex per 10-K)
- Meta Platforms (capex per 10-K)
- Oracle (capex per 10-K)
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B? resolve?
- Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2027.
- How is Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the sum of full-year 2026 capital expenditures from the following five companies exceeds $300 billion USD: