NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026
QuarterlyTechAIBusiness & Corporate2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 25, 12:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:47 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Hinge #1 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If by the fourth quarter of 2026 NVIDIA’s datacent[er] revenue and the combined AI capital expenditures of Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc have doubled year‑over‑year, the hardware curve is still exponential and the short camp scores a point.
- If they have not, the long camp’s “curve‑bend” story gains credibility."
- The other bets:
- #2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1