Current community forecast
Yes 64.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 9:52 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketWill Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings?
PolymarketWill the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?
KalshiWill Georgia's quarterly GDP growth exceed 3% in Q2 2026?
ForecastExRules
Context: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/hyperscaler-capex-vs-cash-flow
- Resolves yes if for a calendar quarter the combined cash capex of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle is lower than it was in the proceeding quarter.
- Since Oracle does not do calendar year reporting, their nearest fiscal quarter will be used for its contribution to the sum.
- The market resolves after Q4 2027 financials are released for all companies (including Oracle’s equivalent)
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028? resolve?
- Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Context: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/hyperscaler-capex-vs-cash-flow