Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
One-OffChinaRegulationTech2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 6, 24, 4:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This is an evaluation of this prediction from Jack Clark (https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1787493143186948454)
- "Registering bet that CCP prohibitions on generation of "unsafe" content will mean companies like Facebook use CN-developed censorship techniques to train models so they can be openly disseminated 'safely'.
- The horseshoe theory of AI politics where communist and libertarian ideologies end up in the same place."
- This is in reference to Sophon, and potential future advances like it: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.12699.
- Resolves to YES if this statement proves accurate within the deadline with respect to Meta in particular, as applied to Meta's best open weights model at the time.
- Resolves to NO if this does not happen.
