will the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for will the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves??

Manifold Markets prices No at 55.7% as of October 19, 2026.

When does will the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves? resolve?

will the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is will the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202924%
• 2028-2.0pt17%
• 202710%

Total Vol

$2.1M

24h Vol

$231.3K

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.7%98%
• Above 23.8%95%
• Above 24.6%93%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+5.1pt52%
• Gemini-0.1pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-1.3pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+3.0pt78%
• December 15,+4.5pt76%
• November 30,-2.0pt65%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt85.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202783%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+7.0pt74%

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.1pt98%
• October 31-5.0pt78%
• October 24-36.5pt41%

+11 more outcomes

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